Generative AI puts AUD$35 billion of creators' income at risk

A recent global economic study has identified significant risks to the future income of human creators in the music and audiovisual sectors due to the rise of Generative AI.

This study, commissioned by the International Confederation of Societies of Authors and Composers (CISAC) and conducted by PMP Strategy, evaluates the economic impact of AI on creators worldwide. According to the findings, Generative AI poses a substantial threat to creators' revenues, with an estimated 24% of income in music and 21% in audiovisual content at risk by 2028.

The revenue loss for creators is projected to total EUR €22 billion (AUD $35 billion) over the next five years, impacting various sectors differently. Among those most affected, the study highlights that translators and adaptors for dubbing and subtitling could face a revenue risk of 56%, while screenwriters and directors might see losses of 15 to 20%.

Generative AI's market for music and audiovisual content is predicted to expand significantly, growing from approximately EUR €3 billion (AUD $4.8 billion) today to EUR €64 billion (AUD $103 billion) by 2028. The revenue from AI-generated services in music and audiovisual content is expected to reach EUR €9 billion (AUD $14.6 billion), showing a sharp increase from the current EUR €0.3 billion (AUD $0.5 billion).

CISAC President and founding member of ABBA, Björn Ulvaeus, emphasised the importance of shaping effective policies, stating, "For creators of all kinds, from songwriters to film directors, screenwriters to film composers, AI has the power to unlock new and exciting opportunities— but we have to accept that, if badly regulated, generative AI also has the power to cause great damage to human creators, to their careers and livelihoods. Which of these two scenarios will be the outcome? This will be determined in large part by the choices made policy makers, in legislative reviews that are going on across the world right now."

Dean Ormston, CEO of APRA AMCOS, corroborated these concerns, stating, "This report lays bare the urgent need for action from governments around the world and echoes the findings of the landmark report in AI and Music that APRA AMCOS released in August. Generative AI presents both incredible opportunities and significant risks, but right now, it's creators who stand to lose the most. Our industry thrives on human creativity. The Australian and New Zealand Governments need to take the lead and act decisively to protect the livelihoods of creators and the future of our creative industries."

Jenny Morris MNZM OAM, APRA Chair, also advocated for the protection of creators' rights, asserting, "Music is the soul of our arts and culture, and it's heartbreaking to see creators' work being undervalued and their livelihoods put at risk by unregulated AI. We must stand up for the voices of our creators, from First Nations artists to emerging and established songwriters, and push governments to act with urgency to safeguard their futures."

AMCOS Chair, Jaime Gough, echoed these sentiments, highlighting the concerning projections in the report, "The global economic projections in this report are deeply concerning - AI is set to generate billions for tech companies while leaving the creators of music and screen content behind. Governments in Australia and New Zealand must step up with regulations that ensure fair remuneration and transparency."

CISAC Director General, Gadi Oron, stressed the need for policy makers to act urgently, "There is a critical message here for policy makers: they must act urgently to safeguard human culture, creators and creativity. They must put in place a legal and regulatory framework that ensures fair remuneration for creators and demands transparency from AI services."

Overall, this report highlights the significant economic shifts expected within the creative industries due to Generative AI and underscores the urgency for policy intervention to protect the economic interests of human creators worldwide.