AI-driven scams to surge, warns Trend Micro in new forecast

Trend Micro has released its latest consumer security predictions, forecasting a significant escalation in AI-driven scams for 2026. The report highlights a sharp increase in fraud that uses artificial intelligence to create convincing impersonations and push victims across diverse digital channels.

AI fuels deception

Fraudsters are increasingly leveraging AI to clone voices, generate personalised messages, and create deepfake personas. These technologies make scams harder to detect and more emotionally manipulative. Multi-channel tactics, where victims are guided from SMS or social media into encrypted chats or fraudulent payment portals, are set to become the prevailing method for cybercriminals.

Public awareness

Consumer exposure to AI-generated content is rising sharply. According to Trend Micro, over half of New Zealanders say they frequently or constantly encounter AI-generated material online. This high exposure blurs the cues individuals have traditionally used to distinguish genuine communication from scams.

"Today, AI is transforming how scams are created and delivered, making them more convincing, more prolific and harder to recognise. In fact, more than half of Kiwis say they encounter AI-generated content very frequently or constantly online*, blurring the cues people once relied on to spot something suspicious. The challenge ahead is ensuring consumers have the awareness, skills and tools to verify what they see before they act, so they can protect themselves from today's modern digital threats," said Ashley Millar, Director of Consumer Education, Trend Micro.

Investment and romance scams

Relationship and investment scams are forecast to continue causing the largest financial losses. Criminals deploy AI chatbots, deepfake images, and hyper-realistic interactions to draw victims into illegitimate investment schemes, often shifting targets from dating apps into crypto or high-yield frauds. Official figures cited in the report show that losses to investment scams reached AUD $945M in Australia in 2024.

Impersonation tactics

Delivery and billing impersonation scams remain among the most frequent global threats. These campaigns increasingly use localised messaging tools and authentic-looking branding, making them appear nearly indistinguishable from legitimate communications. Fraudsters target not only the general public but also micro- and nano-influencers, expanding the potential pool of victims.

Instant payment risks

The proliferation of instant payment and peer-to-peer money transfer apps is also changing the risk landscape. Scammers exploit these channels for irreversible transfers, driving a surge in instant-payment fraud that is expected to carry into 2026 as these payment systems become more commonplace.

Changing detection strategies

Traditional scam detection markers, such as poor spelling or awkward phrasing, are no longer reliable as AI-generated content becomes more polished. Trend Micro emphasises the need for new verification habits, urging consumers to prioritise identity checks and cross-channel confirmation before acting on digital messages.

Trend Micro's ScamCheck tool is positioned as a protective measure, helping users verify the authenticity of texts, links, social media messages, and phone calls. The company says ScamCheck analyses known scam signals and provides guidance to help consumers navigate increasingly complex fraud attempts.

Millar said, "The challenge ahead is ensuring consumers have the awareness, skills and tools to verify what they see before they act, so they can protect themselves from today's modern digital threats."